Statewide · Open seat
U.S. Senate
No incumbent: Paxton beat Cornyn in the May Republican runoff, and Talarico beat Crockett in the Democratic one. A July 28 poll had Talarico up 45-40, taken after a ProPublica/Texas Tribune report alleged Paxton voted from a former address. On Aug. 5 the Tribune reported Talarico had his own residency lapse, voting from his parents' address for two years after buying his own home.
The desk’s rating
Leans Democratic
Democrat
James Talarico
Won May runoff over Jasmine Crockett
- Cash on hand
- $21.55M
- Raised
- $68.56M
- Spent
- $47.01M
Republican
Ken Paxton
Won May runoff over John Cornyn
- Cash on hand
- $2.60M
- Raised
- $2.20M
- Spent
- $3.20M
Money
James Talarico holds 8.3x as much cash.
Cash on hand as reported in each campaign’s latest filing (as of Jun 30, 2026 and Apr 2026). Full finance records
The desk’s notes
Paxton beat Cornyn in the May runoff. Talarico beat Crockett in the Democratic runoff. Former state rep HD-52 (Austin area). Talarico outraised Paxton in the July semiannual filing, $31.6 million to $9.3 million for the quarter and $72 million to $16.8 million cumulatively since 2025, per a July 20, 2026 Texas Tribune analysis of the finance reports.
A Texas Public Opinion Research poll of 1,048 likely voters (July 15-17, released July 28, 2026) had Talarico ahead 45-40, his largest lead of the general-election period, taken after a July 7 Texas Tribune/ProPublica investigation alleged Paxton voted in six elections using a former address.
A Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Center poll (fielded late July, released Aug. 4, 2026) found Talarico leading 79-12 among Black voters and roughly matched his statewide lead. On Aug. 5, 2026 the Texas Tribune reported Talarico voted in five elections using his parents' Travis County address after buying his own home in June 2022, not updating his registration until September 2024; his campaign dismissed the story as a deflection from Paxton's own residency questions rather than answering them directly.
What changed
August 10
The Tribune reported Talarico voted from his parents' address for two years after buying his own home.
Source: Texas Tribune, Aug. 5
July 27
Talarico outraised Paxton $31.6 million to $9.3 million in the quarter.
Source: Texas Tribune, July 20
